Mike’s Blog

I missed last year, but this year I’m back with a vengeance.  Here are my predicted records for the 2008 NFL season:

I didn’t have time to get my season predictions in before Week 1, so I’ll be cheating a bit - sort of - when I get around to it, hopefully before Sunday.  Cheating is OK though - just ask Bill Belichick.

I’m still pretty torn up about Kevin Everett.  I’m so glad he’s starting to regain some movement,  but he’s got such a long way to go that anything but cautious optimism is probably misguided.

I feel like I should be writing something more profound here, but all I can say is:  Thank you for your many contributions to the game of football.  You will be missed.

My condolences to the Walsh family.
ESPN - Former 49ers head coach Bill Walsh dies - NFL

When NFL players change teams, they often want to wear the numbers they’ve been using. The standard practice is for one player to pay money to the current owner of the number for its rights. As if it doesn’t already sound petty that multi-million dollar athletes extort money from one another for such a thing, there was actually a dispute over a number a couple years ago involving current Redskin Clinton Portis and former Redskin Ifeanyi Ohalete. Portis wanted Ohalete’s #26 and they agreed to a certain sum of money, but when Ohalete was cut by the Redskins, Portis stopped paying. (They eventually came to an agreement).

Ahman Green and Jason Simmons of the Houston Texans are apparently above such petty behavior. Green signed with Houston during the current offseason, but his #30 that he’d worn with the Packers for many seasons was already taken by Simmons. When he approached Simmons about a deal for the number, Simmons had a plan. Instead of accepting money, Simmons asked Green to make a $25,000 down payment on a home for a deserving single mom. A search was conducted, a single mother with a 7-year-old autistic son was chosen, and the checks (including a matching $25,000 from Texans owner Bob McNair, one of the classier owners in sports) were presented yesterday in an emotional ceremony.

In a sports world where athletes are routinely involved in criminal activities, such a story makes me happy to be an NFL fan. If only there were more players like Simmons, Green and Warrick Dunn of the Falcons (whose charity work Simmons’ idea just might have been inspired by).

“I was surprised to see that they were killing dogs by hanging them and one dog was killed by slamming it to the ground. Those are extremely violent methods of execution — they’re unnecessary and just sick.” - John Goodwin of the Humane Society on the allegations against Michael Vick and friends

The quote above is intended to illustrate exactly how serious this situation is. No, Mr. Clinton Portis, it’s not simply a bunch of guys who choose to have a little fun by getting their dogs together for a little playtime. These people are loathsome creatures who murder dogs for profit in vile and gruesome ways.

If Michael Vick is proven to be involved in this dogfighting ring, I hope he’s banned from the NFL for life. He won’t be, of course, but I’d be happy with a year’s suspension. Anything less indicates the NFL treats marquee players differently than the rank-and-file. Time to put your money where your mouth is, Roger.

The full story, including more of the grisly details is right here.

On the eve of the NFL draft, I thought I’d offer my teams a little advice:

San Francisco: You need a wide receiver.  Desperately.  Oakland will probably take JaMarcus Russell, so trade up with Detroit to get Calvin Johnson with the #2 pick.  You have like 4 million picks in the fourth round - package one of them with the #11 overall pick and take advantage of the fact that Matt Millen is a moron.  Please, for the love of all that is holy, give Alex Smith someone to throw the ball to.

Buffalo: Marv, if you manage to pull off the Michael Turner trade, this is easy. His name is Patrick Willis.  If the Turner trade doesn’t happen, then I’m happy with Marshawn Lynch here. Not getting a linebacker or a running back at this spot is criminal.  Please don’t draft a thousand defensive backs like you did last year.

Note to those I play fantasy football with: you can have Vince Young this year. I’m not going anywhere near him.

Four of the last five guys to grace the cover of Madden have gotten significantly injured, missing at least four games - and in most cases, suffered significant statistical dropoff. Michael Vick in 2003 is the best example of this. Shaun Alexander, who had never missed a game due to injury, missed 6 games with a broken foot last year - clearly the football gods were not pleased that he scoffed at the idea of the “Madden Curse“.

Clearly something sinister is afoot here. Don’t doubt the curse!

It was announced today that the Titans’ Pacman Jones will be suspended for the 2007 season and Cincinnati’s Chris Henry will get 8 games off without pay for their numerous violations of the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Does anyone truly feel remorse for these two hoodlums?

Pacman and Henry are two excellent examples of how, until now, the NFL has failed to relate to the average fan. Sure, everyone makes mistakes, but getting questioned by police 10 times within a year (Jones) or being arrested 4 times in 14 months (Henry) is a good indication that A) you’re not learning from those mistakes; B) you don’t care because you’re not getting punished anyway.

The fans are tired of seeing multimillion dollar athletes act like deplorable trash and get nothing more than a slap on the wrist, be it from the legal system or the NFL, every time. In fact, I have heard it said by others that the behavior of some of these players was beginning to turn them off to the NFL. The unwillingness of the league to police its players was one of the most oft-mentioned criticisms of Paul Tagliabue, and Roger Goodell seems to understand this (finally).

Let’s hope these two suspensions have a tangible effect on the actions of other NFL players - as well as athletes in all leagues.

ESPN.com’s John Clayton has written a detailed analysis of the prognosis of all 32 NFL teams, including their cap room, potential free agency losses, and areas of concern.  It’s a great read for anyone who pays attention to the NFL offeason as meticulously as I do - or who tries and fails miserably to predict each team’s record before the season begins, as I have done the last two years with hilariously bad results.

Congratulations to the Indianapolis Colts, and in particular, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Tony Dungy. Although the entire team deserves recognition, I single out these three because they are consummate class acts, and as such it would be particularly disappointing for their great careers to be marred by the lack of a championship (although Dungy has won the big one as a player).

But with all due respect, Super Bowl XLI wasn’t only about the success of the Colts - the failures of the Chicago Bears deserves discussion as well.

Chicago’s defensive playcalling was abysmal. I simply could not understand why the Bears continued to keep the safeties deep and then drop the linebackers into deep coverage, even after Manning made it clear he was more than willing to pick apart the Chicago defense by dumping the ball off to Joseph Addai (10 catches, 66 yards) and Dallas Clark (4 catches, 36 yards). By the start of the fourth quarter, the damage was done: the Colts had run 69 offensive plays to the Bears’ 28, and the Chicago defense was as worn out as the worst sports cliche. After Rex Grossman threw an ill-advised pass that was intercepted and returned for the game-breaking score, Manning only threw once more as the Colts shoved the ball right down the Bears’ tired throats.

The Bears’ front four was consistently blown off the line of scrimmage by the Indianapolis offensive line. So much for Chicago’s supposedly dominant defense. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes are certainly capable backs, but most figured that Peyton would have to beat the Chicago defense with his arm. Instead, Addai and Rhodes combined for 190 yards on the ground, another reason for Chicago’s late-game exhaustion.

And Rex Grossman must be thanking his lucky stars for Chad Morton and Tony Eason, or else we might be talking about the worst-ever Super Bowl performance by a quarterback. His stat line wasn’t horrible - 20 for 28, 165 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions - but blunders at critical times doomed his team. Down 16-14 late in the first half and with a chance to take the lead before halftime after an Indy fumble, Grossman gave it right back to the Colts by whiffing on a center-QB exchange. Down 19-14 in the third quarter, Grossman turned a 2nd-and-1 into a 4th-and-23 after two consecutive bumbling 11-yard losses, the second one due to another fumbled snap. Then, down 22-14 in the fourth quarter (still within one score!), Grossman threw two picked-off rainbows that would make the Lucky Charms leprechaun jealous, one of which was returned for the aforementioned game-breaking touchdown. If the MVP is the player who has the most profound impact on the outcome, Grossman deserves consideration, although not in the way he’d like. Bears fans have to wonder how much longer they will have to suffer through the Grossman experiment.

On the more positive side: Joseph Addai proved himself to be an up-and-coming star on the world’s biggest stage against a defense some consider to be the best in the league. Manning was the sentimental MVP choice and likely won the award based on his flawless game management, but Addai certainly deserved consideration as well. There were times in the second quarter when I felt Addai was taking over the game by himself - if he wasn’t gashing the Bears’ defense up the middle, he was catching dumpoffs in the flat and turning them into first downs. It likely would have been difficult to justify Addai’s MVP candidacy in the face of Rhodes’ higher rushing total, I suppose.

On a different note, it was refreshing to watch a Super Bowl played in inclement weather. I have long been a supporter of football played in the elements - it’s an outdoor game, and so weather should be a factor. It’s amusing to see that the weather didn’t cooperate this year, despite the league’s shunning of outdoor cold-weather venues in favor of domes and the tropics. And how ironic is it that the dome team seemed to be least affected by the sloppy conditions?

And finally, a note on the ads. Some were good, some were bad, some were puzzling in a “You just spent $2.6 million and that’s the best you can do?” sort of way. At least they’re starting to improve, with some of this year’s crop actually being laugh-out-loud funny like the Bud Light rock-paper-scissors ad. I’ve felt that after a few years of media hoopla about how millions watch solely for the commercials, the pressure has gotten to the advertising companies and they’ve responded with a bunch of duds. It’s nice to know that thanks to Budweiser and Coca-Cola, the Super Bowl is the one event where I’m sure to miss a pair of consecutive turnovers, a 52-yard run, AND a good commercial when the wife makes me let the dog out.

If this is true, then I have to question Falcons GM Rich McKay’s sanity and intelligence for not being willing to trade Michael Vick. He may be an exceptional athlete, but at some point the Falcons are going to have to accept that Michael Vick will never be a great quarterback. In fact, he might be the most overrated player the NFL has ever seen.

The first pick in the draft alone is worth trading Vick for, let alone including Moss and Porter in the deal.

The Oakland Raiders are preparing to make a run at Falcons QB Michael Vick, according to NFL sources. The Raiders package would include receivers Randy Moss and Jerry Porter plus the No.1 overall pick in the 2007 draft for Vick and the Falcons first round pick (10th overall).

Update: Charles Robinson does a good job of explaining why I’m completely wrong. Most profound is the following:

Financially, the trade would be ruinous. Atlanta would be forced to take Vick’s adjusted cap hit of over $16.25 million, plus an additional pair of players who account for $10.75 million in base salary next season. So in one trade, Atlanta would be tying up $27 million in 2007 cap space – nearly 25-percent of what is expected to be a $109 million cap ceiling. As one prominent agent pointed out, the Falcons would have to cut several players just to make it work. And even if Atlanta dealt Vick after June 1 and split the cap hit over two years, bringing Moss and Porter aboard would still amount to over $18 million in cap space in 2007, and another $14 million-plus in dead money in 2008.

First the usually mild-mannered LaDainian Tomlinson goes ballistic after Patriots players classlessly celebrated last on the Chargers’ midfield logo, and now the Patriots are blaming yesterday’s loss to the Colts on officiating and illness, as well as being uncourteous with the media. My respect for the Patriots is diminishing by the minute.

Cornerback Ellis Hobbs was incensed at a pass interference penalty in the end zone that preceded the Colts’ tying touchdown in the third quarter, while Tully Banta-Cain [stats] didn’t even realize he’d been flagged for roughing the passer on the winning drive in the fourth quarter. Start with Hobbs, who was called for face-guarding Reggie Wayne. “I’ll say it publicly - that wasn’t pass interference,” Hobbs said. “I didn’t touch the guy. The ball hit me in the back of the arm. He put his hands up and I’m just trying to play through his hands. I didn’t look back, but I didn’t touch him. You make the call. Watch that replay, and tell me if it’s pass interference.” As for Banta-Cain, the linebacker hit Peyton Manning around the head after a 14-yard completion to Wayne. The 12-yard penalty put the Colts in business at the Patriots 11. “They called that? Really? I didn’t even know that,” Banta-Cain said. “I didn’t even notice that. It’s so loud, I didn’t hear it or see the flag. It’s one of those things where they try to protect the quarterback, especially one like Peyton Manning.”

…

Asked what coach Bill Belichick said to the team following the loss, Tom Brady wasn’t forthcoming.
“I don’t remember,” he said. “I was just trying to take my crap off.”

…

Bruschi and linebacker Rosevelt Colvin suggested the flu that ran through the team took its toll. A number of players cramped up during the game, the result of dehydration associated with the illness.
“A lot of us had some type of thing going on this week,” Bruschi said. “I skipped a couple of press conferences, but you get over it and come out here today.”

I’m sure we all feel a great deal of sympathy for Mr. Owens, who needs another surgery on his damaged ring finger.  Let’s hope for his sake that the surgeon doesn’t drop the scalpel or stop the surgery halfway through to complain about his contract.

Oh really?

Nick Saban, I’d have a lot more respect for you if you had just said “No comment” for the last five weeks. Now, in addition to being yet another college coach who couldn’t hack it in the NFL, you’re also a liar and you have no
class.

I’m not the only one who thinks so, either.

I hate the Dolphins, but I certainly sympathize with their fans who are most certainly fuming right now.

UPDATE: Even Don Shula, a man who deserves much respect, has spoken out. Favorite Saban quote from this piece: “The best way to disrespect somebody is to just walk away from them.” Yep, you hit the nail right on the head there, buddy.

UPDATE 2: Here’s another one, even more scathing.

Jason Taylor must really want that Defensive Player of the Year award, seeing as how the Dolphins have thrown in the towel on yet another season. Now he’s stooping to a politician’s level: running a smear campaign against Shawne Merriman, the only other player who has a shot at winning the award.

Taylor cites Merriman’s steroid suspension in award race - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

It’s funny listening to a guy who is offside on every freaking snap whine about how someone else is assaulting the integrity of the game.

Time Warner sues DirecTV over NFL Network ads - Yahoo! News

Hilarious. Apparently, Time Warner doesn’t remember that it’s engaged in a little deceptive advertising itself. Do as I say and not as I do, eh boys?

Here are my choices for the Pro Bowl Ballot. I abstained from voting for offensive linemen and special teamers, because I don’t know enough to form an educated opinion.

QB
AFC: Peyton Manning (IND), Carson Palmer (CIN), Philip Rivers (SD)
NFC: Drew Brees (NO), Marc Bulger (STL), Alex Smith (SF)

RB
AFC: Larry Johnson (KC), Willie Parker (PIT), Ladainian Tomlinson (SD)
NFC: Tiki Barber (NYG), Frank Gore (SF), Chester Taylor (MIN)

WR
AFC: Laveranues Coles (NYJ), Chad Johnson (CIN), Andre Johnson (HOU), Javon Walker (DEN)
NFC: Anquan Boldin (ARI), Marques Colston (NO), Torry Holt (STL), Roy Williams (DET)

FB
AFC: Lorenzo Neal (SD)
NFC: Mack Strong (SEA)

TE
AFC: Antonio Gates (SD), Kellen Winslow (CLE)
NFC: Alge Crumpler (ATL), Jeremy Shockey (NYG)

K
AFC: Rian Lindell (BUF)
NFC: Robbie Gould (CHI)

P
AFC: Brian Moorman (BUF)
NFC: Mat McBriar (DAL)

CB
AFC: Champ Bailey (DEN), Rashean Mathis (JAC), Asante Samuel (NE)
NFC: Ronde Barber (TB), Walt Harris (SF), Charles Woodson (GB)

SS
AFC: Chris Hope (TEN)
NFC: Roy Williams (DAL)

FS
AFC: Kerry Rhodes (NYJ)
NFC: Ken Hamlin (SEA)

DE
AFC: Robert Mathis (IND), Aaron Schobel (BUF), Jason Taylor (MIA)
NFC: Aaron Kampman (GB), Leonard Little (STL), Julius Peppers (CAR)

ILB
AFC: London Fletcher (BUF), Zach Thomas (MIA)
NFC: Antonio Pierce (NYG), Brian Urlacher (CHI)

OLB
AFC: Keith Bulluck (TEN), Shawne Merriman (SD)
NFC: Lance Briggs (CHI), AJ Hawk (GB)

DT
AFC: John Henderson (JAC), Warren Sapp (OAK)
NFC: Fred Robbins (NYG), Kevin Williams (MIN)

KR
AFC: BJ Sams (BAL)
NFC: Devin Hester (CHI)

From nflgetreal.com: Time Warner Cable claims that despite not carrying the NFL Network, “In most areas, Time Warner Cable customers will see more than 100 live NFL games in 2006″.

Really? Let’s do the math, then.

There are 17 weeks in the NFL season. Each week, there are nationally broadcast games on Sunday and Monday nights. On Sunday afternoons, there are two broadcast networks who have two timeslots each - 1pm and 4pm (EST). However, only one network has doubleheader rights for each week. Therefore, the maximum number of games that a cable operator can possibly show in any given week is 5. 5 * 17 = 85.

What about the playoffs, you say? That’s 11 games. 85 + 11 = 96. Still short of 100.

OK, so surely Time Warner’s claim is saved by special weeks, like Thanksgiving and opening weekend. Week 1 had a Thursday night game and an extra Monday night game. There are two games on Thanksgiving. 96 + 4 = 100. What a relief!

But wait! There is no Sunday night game in Week 7 and no Monday night game in Week 17. Subtract 2. Now we’re back down to 98.

So what does this mean? Time Warner can only claim more than 100 games if they count preseason games - and nobody counts preseason for anything meaningful. Or worse yet, it means that Time Warner is claiming the 8 games on Thursdays and Saturdays that the NFL Network is broadcasting - a channel they won’t be carrying on their system.

While it’s only a difference of a couple of games, it’s another example of how Time Warner is fudging the math to deceive its customers. Shameful.

A few years ago, I tried to write a weekly column containing my thoughts on each week’s NFL action.  The experiment lasted exactly one week.  Proving that I am nothing if not stubborn and persistent, I’m giving it another shot.

So without further ado, some quick-hit observations after the first week of NFL action:

- This just in: Alex Smith may actually be a legitimate NFL quarterback. Sure, his stats (23/40, 288 yards, 1 TD, no picks) are padded by the facts that the Cardinals’ defense isn’t that great and the 49ers were mostly playing from behind, but he made good decisions and displayed a strong arm all afternoon. The 46-yard bomb to Antonio Bryant that got the 49ers in field goal range to cut the deficit to 7 was particularly impressive, as was another 52-yarder to Bryant earlier in the game that would have been a touchdown if not for a holding penalty. Smith looked beyond awful last year, but keep in mind that in addition to the usual rookie quarterback growing pains, Smith had the added pressure of playing for a franchise with a long history of great QB’s and had nobody to throw the ball to. After a year of experience under his belt, he now has Eric Johnson returning from injury, a tight end who might be the next Antonio Gates in Vernon Davis, a more competent #1 receiver in Antonio Bryant, and an emerging battering ram named Frank Gore in the backfield. Smith has a long way to go, but he might be finally showing signs of justifying the 49ers spending a #1 overall pick on him.

- This just in: JP Losman still isn’t a legitimate quarterback. He has progressed, certainly, but you do NOT retreat into your own end zone when it’s late in the game and the score is tied. Losman’s career thus far has been marked by inconsistency and poor decision-making, and although he wasn’t intercepted Sunday, he showed no signs of reversing that trend. The Bills are going to regret passing up on Matt Leinart, who had no business being on the board after the fourth pick, with the #8 overall draft choice. The guy they got instead, Donte Whitner, made a couple good plays including a nice interception and will be a very good player in the NFL, but the Bills haven’t had a decent QB since Jim Kelly retired.

- The Manning Bowl didn’t quite live up to the hype in my view. In 87 years and 12,000+ NFL games, one brother has never started against another at QB, and that’s quite an eye-opening fact. But this game was all about the run; namely, Indy’s inability to run the ball or to stop the Giants from running it. Tiki Barber picked up right where he left off last year with over 6 yards a carry, and the Colts looked helpless against him. Even Brandon Jacobs went off, averaging nearly 7 yards per rush. The Colts need to figure this out ASAP or there will be no 13-0 run this year.

- What an ugly hit Trent Green took against Cincinnati. It appears that Robert Geathers may have indeed been shoved into Green, and the hit probably looked worse than it really was because Green’s head was already so close to the ground, but the impact was still difficult to watch. Here’s hoping the Chiefs are being truthful about the fact that the injury isn’t as severe as it appeared.

- The Cardinals’ new stadium looks to be quite spectacular. How refreshing it must be for them to have 60,000+ instead of 10,000 of their own fans and 20,000 of their opponents’ fans. Just in time to save them from being moved to LA, I’m sure.

- Does anyone in the AFC East look like a contender to do anything besides win their own division? Didn’t think so. Despite the predictions I posted on Sunday, the division winner might end up being 9-7 with everyone else below .500. What a disaster.

- The beginning of the Reggie Bush era in New Orleans was a smashing success. Good thing they also picked up Drew Brees during the offseason, who knows a thing or two about how to get the ball to a star running back. Barring injury, Bush is going to be a main attraction for years to come, judging by Sunday’s performance.

- Willis McGahee, for all his big talk, will never be an elite back in the NFL if he continues to lose focus so easily. After failing to convert a fourth down deep in Patriots’ territory, he claimed he thought it was third down and that he’d have another shot. NFL players are paid far too much money to not know the game situation.

- Is Brett Favre sure that he didn’t make a mistake by not retiring? I guess he figured that being shut out was an achievement worth returning for.

- Terrell Owens, it should be obvious by now that you needed Donovan McNabb far more than he needed you. 314 yards and 3 TD’s in your absence should be proof enough.

- Chester Taylor is this year’s LaMont Jordan in the fantasy world.  Write that down.

- The Oakland Raiders are this year’s Houston Texans.  What a mess that situation is.

- Coaches who I predict will not be with their current clubs next year: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee; Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego; Brian Billick, Baltimore.  Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher may decide to retire as well, but neither one of them are in situations as poor as the aforementioned three coaches.  Fisher’s situation is especially bad, in that he is saddled with a meddling owner and a front office that is regarded as poor by most, not to mention that his contract contains a clause triggered after this season that states the Titans must make him an offer equal to the five highest-paid coaches in the league.

That’s all for this week.  Hopefully Week 2 will provide as much juicy editorial fodder.

AFC EAST
Miami 11-5
New England 9-7
Buffalo 6-10
New York Jets 3-13

AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 11-5
Cincinnati 10-6
Cleveland 8-8
Baltimore 5-11

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 13-3
Jacksonville 10-6
Tennessee 5-11
Houston 3-13

AFC WEST
Denver 12-4
Kansas City 9-7
San Diego 8-8
Oakland 3-13

NFC EAST
Dallas 11-5
New York Giants 10-6
Washington 10-6
Philadelphia 7-9

NFC NORTH
Chicago 11-5
Minnesota 6-10
Detroit 6-10
Green Bay 4-12

NFC SOUTH
Carolina 12-4
Atlanta 9-7
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 4-12

NFC WEST
Seattle 12-4
Arizona 8-8
St. Louis 7-9
San Francisco 4-12