Mike’s Blog

San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Records: Sharks, 53-18-11 (117 pts); Ducks, 42-33-7 (91 pts)

Season Series: Sharks, 3-3-0; Ducks, 3-3-0

Analysis: New Sharks coach Todd McLellan must be feeling a lot of pressure right now.  The Sharks desperately want to shed the label of playoff chokers, and the way the Sharks rolled through the regular season suggested they’re on a mission to do exactly that.  But now is the time to put up or shut up.  Get bounced before the conference finals, and this season will be yet another wasted year.  On the positive side, home ice is a significant advantage for the Sharks – having lost only five games in regulation at HP Pavilion all year – and Evgeni Nabokov is a rock in goal.

The Ducks struggled mightily (Get it?  Hyuk hyuk) just to make it this far.  They just haven’t been consistent enough.  The top line of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Teemu Selanne/Bobby Ryan is as good as it gets, but goaltending has been a concern.  Jonas Hiller has clearly outplayed incumbent JS Giguere, but former Conn Smythe winner Giguere is the one with playoff experience.  What’s a coach to do?  Even Ducks coach Randy Carlyle doesn’t know who he’ll start yet (as of this writing).

Who I’m rooting for: The Sharks have always been my Western Conference team, if you believe in that sort of thing.

Who will win: These two teams really, really hate each other, so it’ll be fun to watch. The Sharks are more complete and consistent, but the Ducks won’t go down without a fight. Sharks in 6.

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
Records: Wings, 51-21-10 (112 pts); BJs, 41-31-10 (92 pts)

Season Series: Wings, 3-2-1; BJs, 3-3-0

Analysis: The Wings won the Central Division for the 250th year in a row, they’re playoff-tested, they’ve got an unbelievable amount of talent, they’re healthy, and all their good players are signed for the next million years.  No #7 seed will ever have a shot of knocking them off any time soon…. but wait, we’ve found a chink in the armor!  It’s goaltending.  (Isn’t it always?)  Likely playoff starter Chris Osgood had a rather abysmal goals-against average of 3.09.  I haven’t looked at all the stats, but that’s gotta be the worst GAA of any starting playoff goalie since the lockout, or at least in the bottom five.

It was a little weird finally being able to write “Columbus Blue Jackets” in a playoff preview up there.  Columbus was the last NHL team to have never made the playoffs, so they’re probably happy just to be here.  But here’s something little-known outside Ohio: the Jackets are actually good.  The BJs have a ton of confidence in likely Calder Trophy winner Steve Mason, who led the league in shutouts.  Coach Ken Hitchcock won a Cup in Dallas with his defensive system, which the Jackets are playing to perfection.  Trade-deadline acquisition Antoine Vermette, clearly the best center on the team, has clicked well with Rick Nash and in fact has fit in much better than he ever did in Ottawa.

Who I’m rooting for: Definitely Columbus. I’m no Hitchcock fan, but they’re an easy team to get behind and their long-suffering fans deserve to see playoff success.  Plus, I get to chant “Let’s go BJs”.  How can you go wrong there?

Who will win: Welcome to the playoffs, Columbus.  Unfortunately, you get to play your most hated rival – a team that is better and more experienced than you in every way (except goaltending, at least as far as experience is concerned).  Good luck with that.  As much as I’d like to see the BJs win, and as possible as it is that Mason steals a game or two, it won’t be enough. Wings in 5.

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. St. Louis Blues (6)
Records: Canucks, 45-27-10 (100 pts); Blues, 41-31-10 (92 pts)

Season Series: Canucks, 2-2-0; Blues, 2-2-0.

Analysis: You know how everyone assumed New Jersey would fold like a tent if Martin Brodeur ever went down with an injury?  Well, the same thing happened to the Canucks and Roberto Luongo when he hurt his groin in November – but unlike the Devils, Vancouver did in fact suck without their best player.  When he returned after the All-Star break, Luongo and the Canucks played lights-out, taking advantage of a Calgary team in disarray and storming back from 13 points down to steal the Northwest Division.  They’re on a roll right now, the top six forwards have been playing great, and there’s that Luongo guy too.

Hands up – who expected the Blues to make the playoffs?  Didn’t think so.  Low expectations for St. Louis’ season got even lower when Erik Johnson tore his ACL in a freak golf cart accident before the season even began.  Freak accidents come in pairs apparently, because starting goaltender Manny Legace got hurt tripping on a red carpet laid out for Sarah Palin just two weeks into the season.  As if that wasn’t enough, forwards Andy MacDonald and Paul Kariya missed a lot of time with injuries of their own. Yet despite all this, St. Louis turned in the season’s best second half, going 25-9-7.  Led by a bunch of kids like TJ Oshie, David Backes, David Perron, Patrik Berglund, and half a million other players you’ve likely never heard of that were forced to grow up in a hurry, St. Louis completed a stunning turnaround to move up from last place in the West all the way to 6th.  Chris Mason replaced the waived Manny Legace in goal and started the final 38 games, playing very well and going 24-8-6 over that stretch.

Who I’m rooting for: The Blues.  Partially because of Jay McKee, partially because Chris Mason won me a fantasy championship, but mostly because they’re a fantastic story.

Who will win: St. Louis’s reward for being the hottest team in the NHL is… getting
to play the second hottest team in the NHL (23-7-2) in the first round.  Some
reward.  Vancouver is more experienced, Luongo is healthy, and although St. Louis may get Kariya back soon, they’re still mostly a bunch of kids without much playoff experience.  Except for Keith Tkachuk, who has never won anything of note at any time during his career.  Canucks in 6.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs. Calgary Flames (5)
Records: Hawks, 46-24-12 (104 pts); Flames, 46-30-6 (98 pts)

Season Series: Hawks, 4-0-0; Flames, 0-3-1

Analysis: Hawks fans must have been praying for Bill Wirtz’s death. Don’t believe me?  Hawks fans actually booed during a tribute and moment of silence for Wirtz during the 2007 season opener.  The Hawks were rarely, if ever, competitive under Dollar Bill’s ownership, but that culture has changed since his son Rocky took the reins.  Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews blossomed into superstars, Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet were signed, and Joel Quenneville replaced Denis Savard as coach.  Huet and Nikolai Khabibulin form a nice 1-2 punch in goal, Martin Havlat has stayed (relatively) healthy, and Patrick Sharp has progressed.  Why, the Hawks even started showing home games on TV!  In short, there’s a lot to like about this team.

Calgary started strong, but has backslid considerably.  They built a big lead in the Northwest, then started to fritter it away with a four-game losing streak to begin February, and in the end cost themselves the #3 seed by failing to hold off Vancouver, sealing their fate with a 4-1 loss to the Canucks in the 80th game of the season.  The trade deadline brought in Olli Jokinen, which so far hasn’t worked out well.  Injuries are mounting at the worst possible time, and Miikka Kiprusoff hasn’t been good enough in net to stop the bleeding.  Jarome Iginla and Michael Cammalleri have been outstanding scorers, but it drops off a lot after that.

Who I’m rooting for: Gotta go with Chicago.  Not rooting for Kane and Soupy would be sacrilege for someone from Western NY.

Who will win: I don’t see Calgary bouncing back after blowing the Northwest Division title – that’s going to weigh on them heavily from a psychological standpoint.  The Blackhawks are less playoff-tested, but are a better team overall.  Blackhawks in 5.

#1 Boston Bruins vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
Records: Bruins, 53-19-10 (116 pts);  Canadiens, 41-30-11 (93 pts)

Season Series: Bruins, 5-0-1; Habs, 1-3-2

Analysis: The Canadiens began the year as the favorites to win the East, but instead celebrated their centennial by becoming the NHL’s version of the Dallas Cowboys.  The 100th anniversary expectations were apparently too much to handle because the Canadiens were an inconsistent mess, going 3-11-1 during one stretch in January and February.  Carey Price took a major step back in goal, Alex Kovalev was benched, the Kostitsyn brothers became linked to organized crime, quite a few players were widely criticized for being notorious partiers, and – in a move borne of sheer desperation – coach Guy Carbonneau was fired near the trade deadline despite insistence from GM (and now coach) Bob Gainey that he’d never do such a thing.  Only Octo-mom provided more ridiculous drama over the past few months.

The Bruins, meanwhile, were consistently the best team in the conference all year long save for a little slide in February and March, and for good reason: they have the best depth of any team in the East.  Players such as Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, and David Krejci had breakout years, Patrice Bergeron appears to have put his injury problems behind him, and they reloaded at the trade deadline with some guy named Mark Recchi.  (Anyone know if he’s any good?)  The defense with Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman, and Mark Stuart is solid, and Tim Thomas has his best statistical season ever, winning 36 games with a 2.10 (!) GAA and .933 (!!) save percentage.  The Bruins were #2 in the NHL in goals scored and #1 in goals against.

Who I’m rooting for: Bruins, I guess.  I’m not really fond of either team.

Who will win: Montreal will find a way to steal a game, but it’s hard to give them any more than that. Bruins in 5.

#2 Washington Capitals vs. #7 New York Rangers
Records: Capitals, 50-24-8 (108 pts), Rangers, 43-30-9 (95 pts)

Season Series: Caps, 3-0-1; Rangers, 1-2-1

Analysis: The Capitals built on last season’s rebirth, winning 50 games for the first time since 1985-86 and capturing the Southeast Division easily (not a major feat in years past, but the SE nearly fielded three playoff teams this year).  They scored the third-most goals in the NHL (#2 in the East), Ovechkin again led all goal scorers in the NHL with 56, and four players (Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Mike Green) scored 70+ points, helping overcome somewhat inconsistent goaltending from Jose Theodore.  Many people assume the Caps are a one-man army, but their role players and defense are better than most people realize.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have been very up-and-down.  A 10-2-3 start was wiped out by a 2-7-4 stretch in January and February that helped get coach Tom Renney fired.  Since being taken over by John Tortorella and re-acquiring Sean Avery, the Blueshirts are a very different team, playing a more aggressive attacking style than that of the more conservative Renney.  The pre-Tortorella Rangers trapped a lot and were often accused of being New Jersey Lite; Tortorella’s Rangers are most certainly not that.  The big knock against the Rangers is a lack of goal scoring; Markus Naslund led the team with just 24, and in fact, Ovechkin had more goals than Naslund and #2 goal scorer Nikolai Zherdev all by himself.  Unless Henrik Lundqvist is Superman, the Rangers will need someone to find a scoring touch to have a prayer in this series.

Who I’m rooting for: The Rangers are the only other team I wouldn’t mind seeing in the Finals, but my huge mancrush on Ovechkin dictates I must root for the Caps.  If the Rangers win this series, they become my East team for the rest of the playoffs.

Who will win: The Avery and Tortorella factors make this somewhat tough to call, as the season series was played out before they arrived in New York.  But as long as Theodore doesn’t melt down, the Caps don’t let Avery get under their skin, and Lundqvist lets in a goal every now and then, the Caps can punch their ticket to Round 2.  Caps in 6.

#3 New Jersey Devils vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Records: Devils, 51-27-4 (106 pts); Hurricanes, 45-30-7 (97 pts)

Season Series: Devils, 1-3-0; Canes, 3-1-0

Analysis: Yet another ho-hum 50-win season for the Devils, as Martin Brodeur carried them by playing in nearly every game and a set of 12 interchangeable forwards trapped the life out of opponents resulting in a ton of 2-1 victories.  I tell you, if Brodeur ever got injured that team would be exposed as a fraud… wait a minute, what’s that you say? Brodeur missed 50 games with an injured elbow?  Zach Parise finished 5th in the NHL in scoring… and plays for the Devils? Huh, what do you know.   The truth is, the Devils aren’t the defense-only team we’re all used to – they’re decidedly middle-of-the-pack now when it comes to goal scoring.  Hey, that’s a really big deal in Swampland!  The Devils have lots of depth at forward and defense, but their problem is momentum, ending the season on a 5-7-1 run in which Brodeur was very un-Brodeurlike.

Carolina, on the other hand, ended the season on an 18-6-2 tear since Valentine’s Day, including a nine-game winning streak in March and 12 straight at home.  Carolina is yet another team that showed its coach the door during the season, and this was yet another instance of it actually working.  A deadline-day deal brought Erik Cole back into the fold from Edmonton, rejuvenating both his career and Eric Staal’s.  Cam Ward has been unbelievable over the last couple months, and enough pieces are left from the 2006 Cup that lack of experience won’t be an issue.

Who I’m rooting for: New Jersey aren’t the trap hacks they used to be, but they still ruined hockey in the mid-90’s.  Carolina crushed my Cup dreams in 2006.  Do I have to root for either one?   Too bad hockey doesn’t have a double disqualification like wrestling.

Who will win: I’m going with the team that has more momentum.  The Devils don’t have their usual goaltending advantage in this series – remember that Cam Ward won a Conn Smythe three years ago, and he’ll outplay Brodeur.  Canes in 7.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers
Records: Penguins, (45-28-9, 99 pts); Flyers, 44-27-11 (99 pts)

Season Series: Pens, 4-2-0; Flyers, 2-2-2

Analysis: With the amount of talent Pittsburgh has, they should have easily won the East.  They boast two of the league’s top three scorers in Crosby and Malkin, for crying out loud.  Yet if the season ended in January, the Pens would be watching the playoffs on TV like the rest of us. What happened?  Injuries (Sergei Gonchar, Crosby), and apparently, Michel Therrien. His Valentine’s Day card from the team had a pink slip inside, and since replacing him with Dan Bylsma and adding Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz, all of a sudden the Penguins are as good as they’ve ever been.

Remember when the Flyers completely sucked a couple years ago?  Yeah, I hardly remember it either.  What a turnaround this team has undergone since 2006-07.   Mike Richards has developed into one of the best young captains in the league, Jeff Carter has become a goal scoring machine, and although they’ve been just fine without Danny Briere for the vast majority of the season, he’s now healthy as well.  The Flyers were playing so well that they actually had some difficulty getting him back into the lineup.  Goaltending is a question mark, but you could copy and paste that phrase from year to year and it would still apply.  The Flyers usually find a way to compensate.

Who I’m rooting for: My hatred of both teams runs very deep – the Flyers have always been dirty and Crosby is a diving, crying little punk – so I’ll go with double disqualification once again.

Who will win: By the numbers, these teams are as even as it gets.  First, note the regular season records above.  Pittsburgh scored 264 goals in the regular season; so did Philly.  Pittsburgh gave up 239 goals, Philly gave up 238.  Pittsburgh’s PK was 82.7%: Philly, 83%.  Pittsburgh’s home record was 25-13-3 and away record was 20-15-6.  Philly?  24-13-4
and 20-14-7.  And – get this – both teams play in the state of Pennsylvania!  How about that!

When the numbers are this close, I have to look at two things: goaltending and momentum.  Advantage: Pittsburgh in both cases.  Penguins in 7.

Ryan Miller’s stats are the reason this is interesting to me.  Sure he gives up the occasional bad goal, but “Mr. Softee”, as the stats show, is one of the biggest reasons the Sabres’ penalty killing has been so very good this year.  And on a team that loves to take dumb penalties (I’m looking at you, Toni Lydman), that’s huge.

Ranking the best shorthanded goalies in the NHL – Puck Daddy – NHL – Yahoo Sports

As a big believer in the notion that the success of a sports league is the continued strength and success of its oldest franchises, I am really happy to see this.  Just two short years ago the Blackhawks were a complete joke, and the quick turnaround has been a pleasant surprise.

Fans warm to Blackhawks after decade of apathy – NHL – Yahoo! Sports

Nowadays, the Blackhawks are such a hot ticket even seats way up high in the United Center are filled. The Indian Head logo is all the rage, spotted across the city on men and women, young and old, on everything from jerseys to caps to pajama bottoms.

As a video on the Jumbotron before a recent game proclaimed, “Hockey never left Chicago, but it has definitely returned.”

A year after the season ticket base dwindled to 3,400, it’s now a franchise-record 14,000. Every game so far has sold out, including a regular-season record 22,690 for the Oct. 25 game against the Red Wings. Merchandise sales are up a whopping 60 percent from last year.

I am hereby predicting another last-place finish for Tampa.  Guess 12 years of watching Barry on ESPN wasn’t enough to prove to the Lightning’s new owners that Barry knows absolutely nothing about hockey.  (And as for how Barry was employed by ESPN for so long: ESPN doesn’t know a lick about hockey either.)

Lightning hires Barry Melrose as coach – NHL – Yahoo! Sports

Now that the playoffs are in full swing, lest anyone forget how heated things can get, here’s a little reminder…

Last year, Chris Neil leveled Chris Drury with a blindside hit a full second after the puck was shot, driving his shoulder into Drury’s head.  Drury missed 4 or 5 games with a concussion, and when the hit was called dirty, Ottawa fans screamed “You gotta keep your head up”.   Daniel Alfredsson apparently didn’t listen.  Mark Bell just proved to the Senators that karma is a bitch by doing almost the exact same thing to Alfie – a guy who, by the way, proved how high-class he is last year by intentionally shooting the puck at Scott Niedermayer during the finals.

Ottawa fans, don’t you dare tell me the Bell hit was dirty after defending the Neil hit.  Don’t you dare.

Exhibit A right here. LOL

… the bright side is that there are now only 14 games left in Dmitri Kalinin’s Buffalo Sabres career.

Now THAT is something to celebrate!

Mr. Regier, if your team truly has a need for a slow-skating defenseman who mishandles the puck, commits countless giveaways, and allows breakaway after breakaway, please give my agent a call.  I’ll offer my services for much less than the soon-to-be free agent Kalinin will surely fetch on the open market.

(Dmitri, you didn’t seriously wonder why your agent hasn’t been called yet, did you?)

Well, it’s official – the NHL has finally announced the outdoor game between the Sabres and Penguins on New Year’s Day.  For all Gary Bettman’s faults and missteps, he’s finally done something I can be happy about on a personal level.  This is gonna be insane and I can’t wait.

Briere rejects Sabres’ offer

I think what drives me nuts about this are the comments from seemingly ill-informed people such as “Buffalo was cheap last year thats why they are paying this year” and “Buffalo’s cheap ways are coming back to bite them in the slug!!!”

Point 1: In case you’ve forgotten, the NHL has a salary cap. Each team is not allowed to go over a predefined league limit for player payroll, meaning that you’ve got a lot of players to keep happy with only a finite amount of money. The Sabres just barely did that last year, managing to stay under the $44 million cap only with such actions as walking away from JP Dumont’s $2.9 million arbitration award, trading Marty Biron at the deadline to dump his $2 million salary, and demoting Drew Stafford to the minors for the final two games of the regular season. Can someone explain to me how spending every red penny on players that the league allows you to spend is considered “cheap”?

Point 2: This year, the Sabres are trying to resign Drury and perhaps Zubrus (although the latter is unlikely at this point), and will have to match whatever offer sheets come in for RFAs Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy. Plus, I’m sure they’d like to pick up a gritty winger or two. So… starting the negotiations by offering a guy what he wanted the prior year, knowing that you have a heap of other players to keep happy with a limited amount of spending ability, is being cheap?

Point 3: The salary cap is rising too quickly, from $39 million two years ago to $50.3 million this year. (Side note: I sure wish my own salary would increase by nearly a third over a two-year span.) The Sabres are attempting to keep up with this tidal wave of rising payroll while having revenue that is among the lowest in the league: average ticket prices are in the mid-$30 range, necessary because sellouts weren’t nearly as prevalent before last year, and because the economy in Buffalo is terrible.

But I suppose it’s just easier to assume the Sabres are just cheap. So forget everything I just said and cling to that mantra like a dog with a new chewtoy.

Flashback to May 19th, 2007: As the Ottawa Senators celebrated a series-clinching overtime goal right beneath me, my emotions got the best of me and I bitterly exclaimed: “Don’t worry Ottawa, you’ll blow it in the finals.”

I told you so.

Congrats to the Ducks on being the first California team, and the first team on the West Coast in over 80 years (no, Colorado doesn’t count) to win the Stanley Cup. The Ducks didn’t just win, they consistently manhandled the Sens. Ottawa won a lot of games in the playoffs by playing a physical style, but when they ran into a team that plays even more physical, they couldn’t hang. Ray Emery fell back down to earth and proved he’s a below-average goaltender who seems to let in at least one soft goal per game, and the rest of the Sens did nothing to shed their image as chokers. They were so rattled that they turned over the puck like it was a hot potato and resorted to a barrage of cheap shots, including Chris Neil’s attempt to behead Andy McDonald in Game 3 (which, mysteriously, went unpunished) and Daniel Alfredsson’s shooting of the puck at Scott Niedermayer in Game 4 as the period ended in a humiliating display of poor sportsmanship.

Can you tell I don’t like Ottawa very much? Heh.

This video is the sort of thing I’ll watch years from now when I’m having a bad day, and it will cheer me up instantly.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
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Buffalo (1) vs. New York Rangers (6)
Buffalo swept the season series with the Rangers, but the Rangers were a vastly different team when they last played on Dec. 1st. Many took the Islanders lightly, but they played the Sabres much tougher than most people expected – and the Sabres still won in five. The Rangers will offer more of a challenge, but the Sabres are up to it after acknowledging that they need to play better. The Rangers took advantage of an easy first-round matchup with the overrated Thrashers and wiped them out in four straight, but the train stops here. Sean Avery will not be able to throw Buffalo off its game as easily as he did with Kovalchuk, Hossa, and Kozlov, and the Rangers’ D is slow and exploitable. Sabres in 6.

New Jersey (2) vs. Ottawa (4)
Ottawa easily beat a young and shell-shocked Pittsburgh team, while New Jersey struggled a bit against the one-line Lightning. But now, the Devils and Senators enter a matchup in which the opposition has just as much depth and experience. As a Sabres fan, I hope these two teams beat the hell out of each other. Martin Brodeur will not be able to get away with mediocre play as he did in the first three games against Tampa. Ottawa in 7.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
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Detroit (1) vs. San Jose (5)
Don’t look at the rankings here – the only reason Detroit finished a mere six points ahead of San Jose was because of the easy-pickings division they play in. Although Detroit overwhelmed Calgary, it took them six games to do so – and San Jose is far, far better than Calgary. San Jose beat Nashville in five games despite going only 2 for 30 on the powerplay, and if they get it on track in this series, Detroit is done. San Jose in 6.

Anaheim (2) vs. Vancouver (3)
Anaheim won the season series 3-1 and held Vancouver to an average of 2 goals per game. In its previous series against Dallas, Vancouver scored a mere 13 goals in 7 games – only eight of which came in the final six games. These are not auspicious numbers for the Canucks. Marty Turco was stellar in the first round, but let’s face it, the Canucks are extremely mediocre offensively – and now they get to face Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger. Does Roberto Luongo have four shutouts in him? He might need to for the Canucks to have a chance. Anaheim in 5.

I’m really starting to dislike the Predators and Barry Trotz.

After Game 1, when Hartnell kneed the hell out of Cheechoo: “There was no sticking out of the knee.” What replay were you looking at? It was clear as day. Even I could see it.

After Game 2: “We came here to play hockey tonight. We knew it was an important game, and they turn it into a street brawl.” Hmm, perhaps because for the second game in a row the refs kick out one of your players, this time Radulov for trying to kill Bernier from behind?

Face it, the Preds are dirty. Of course, as a Sabres fan I already know this from when Scott Nichol sucker-punched Jaro Spacek in the back of the head back in December. There is nothing likable about this team whatsoever.

“Anytime you can have your best players on the ice, it’s a good thing for any hockey club.” – John Madden, New Jersey Devils forward

Silly me… I was under the impression that it was better for your best players to be on the bench, trainer’s room, or even the pressbox.   I always thought it was the AHL-caliber scrubs that you wanted out there.  Thanks for clearing that up John!

EASTERN CONFERENCE
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Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Islanders (8)
Nobody but the most diehard of Islander fans would have even suggested that the Isles would be here a week ago, but Montreal, Toronto, and Carolina collapsed all around the Isles in hilarious fashion while the Fishsticks were busy winning four straight to close the season. Unfortunately for the Islanders, all they have earned is the right to get utterly destroyed by the President’s Trophy-winning Sabres. Lindy Ruff will not allow his team to take anyone for granted despite the #1 seed, so don’t expect the Islanders to catch anyone by surprise. Ted Nolan is good enough to coach New York to perhaps one win, but he can’t compensate for a lack of depth and a recently called up third-string goalie who is about to crack under the pressure of facing the highest-scoring team in the league, which boasts seven guys with 20 or more goals. And I hear a lot about how Miro Satan will be pumped to play against his old team, but does anyone really think he won’t go in the tank if the Sabres win the first two games? (Note to the AP: the Sabres didn’t fire Nolan – his contract had expired, Darcy Regier was a new GM in a tough spot, and Nolan turned down his one-year contract offer. Get your facts straight.) Sabres in 5.

New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7)
The Devils have a couple guys who can score, a defensive philosophy that is effective (although incredibly boring), and some guy named Brodeur between the pipes. Tampa has…. a couple guys who can score. Seriously, “Charlie’s Angels” has more depth than the Lightning, and it might have better goaltending too. Keep those pillows around for New Jersey’s snooze-inducing second-round matchup. Sealy ought to ditch the sheep and use Lou Lamiorello in their mattress commercials instead. Devils in 6.

Atlanta Thrashers (3) vs. New York Rangers (6)
Those lucky Rangers. They get to play the overrated Thrashers – a team that earned only three more points despite being seeded three spots higher – all because the Rangers weren’t quite as good as the Penguins, who get stuck playing Ottawa. This series points out the big flaw in the NHL’s playoff system – the Thrashers are not worthy of a #3 seed, and will most certainly not be around for the second round. I don’t know how to fix that, but I do know that Henrik Lundqvist has been on fire lately, and that combined with the Rangers’ recommittment to defense means that Atlanta GM Don Waddell will have traded his future at the deadline for nothing. Shut down Kovalchuk, Hossa, and Kozlov, and Atlanta has no one left to put the puck in the net. Keith Tkachuk? Yeah, he sure has led teams to playoff success everywhere he’s been. Rangers in 6.

Ottawa Senators (4) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5)
There’s no doubt in my mind that this will be the most thrilling of all the first-round matchups. Both teams have a lot of scoring and play an up-tempo game. It’ll be interesting to see how Pittsburgh’s kids respond to their first playoff series – there’s a reason why the Pens got Gary Roberts at the trade deadline. That will pay off enormously, but I don’t think it will be enough. The Sens have more depth, are better on the blueline, and Ray Emery still hasn’t realized he’s only Ray Emery yet. Sid the Kid’s first playoff series will end in disappointment, but disappointment will never be more fun to watch. Senators in 7.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
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Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Calgary Flames (8)
Detroit is a fraud. I say it every year, and usually I’m proven right – you may recall that I picked the Oilers to win in the first round last year. The Wings went 22-4-6 against the incredibly weak Central Division and 28-15-7 against everyone else – it’s easy to amass a lot of points when you get to play Columbus, Chicago, and St. Louis a total of 24 times a year. Detroit finds itself in a similar situation to last year, matched up with a #8 seed from Alberta who barely made the playoffs and is known for a defensive style. The difference is that this year, that #8 seed stumbled badly entering the playoffs – Calgary lost its last four games. Miikka Kiprusoff has given up at least three goals in each of his last three starts, and he needs to be better for the Flames to have any chance at all. He has the capability to steal a series though, as he did in ‘04 when the Flames made the finals. The Flames have a bit more scoring depth than in the past – Alex Tanguay, the better-late-than-never emergence of Kristian Huselius – but Detroit should have just enough to get by the Flames despite some injuries, most notably Niklas Kronwall. Assuming that Dominik Hasek doesn’t get his yearly groin injury in the next week, the Wings will wait until the second round this year to be exposed for what they are. Wings in 7.

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Minnesota Wild (7)
Minnesota is a team stuck with an awful first-round matchup. Technically the Ducks are no longer Mighty, but you’d never know it after their unreal 28-5-6 start. Then the injuries started piling up – first J.S. Giguere, then Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. The Ducks were a rather mediocre 20-15-8 for the rest of the season, blowing the #1 seed in the West and nearly the Pacific Division title. The Wild also endured more than their fair share of injuries, most notably to Marian Gaborik (whose groin injuries rival Hasek’s in terms of frequency) and Manny Fernandez, who seems to have been replaced as the #1 guy by Nicklas Backstrom, who has played very well. Nearly all the walking wounded have healed though, and as long as the Ducks can stay healthy, they have too much for the overmatched Wild, especially on defense. (Side note: Minnesota must have the coolest potential chant in the league – “Let’s Go Wild!” They do use that, right?) Ducks in 6.

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Dallas Stars (6)
If you like low-scoring games, this is your series. The Stars ranked #2 in the league with only 197 goals against, and Vancouver isn’t far behind, tying for fifth at 201. Meanwhile, Dallas is #21 in goals for (226) and the Canucks are #22 (222). Having said this, I am certain every game will be 6-5. Clearly, this series is going to come down to goaltending, and how unlucky for Dallas that they don’t have a clear-cut advantage as they would against most other teams. Which Marty Turco will we see this time – the guy with the .910 save percentage and the 2.23 GAA in the regular season, or the guy who chokes nearly every year in the playoffs (3.32 GAA, .849 save percentage in ‘03-’04, and 3.39 GAA, .868 save percentage last year)? My guess is the latter. Roberto Luongo has been waiting a long time to make the playoffs, and he will not disappoint. Canucks in 6.

Nashville Predators (4) vs. San Jose Sharks (5)
The seedings in the West don’t make much of a difference this year, with only nine points separating the top seven teams. This series is no exception. Nashville – like Detroit – is somewhat of a fraud, padding its record by beating up on weak AHL… er, I mean Central Division teams. San Jose plays against a couple of bottom-feeders in the Pacific as well, but have Anaheim and Dallas to keep them a bit more honest. Both teams have two solid goaltenders (and it will be interesting to see if the Sharks pick a guy and stick with him or continue to use a strict every-other-game rotation), both teams have balanced scoring with 11 players each who scored at least 10 goals, both teams are good on the road, and both teams play well defensively. In short, these two teams are very evenly matched. In the end, I like San Jose’s trades at the deadline (Craig Rivet, Bill Guerin) better than Nashville’s (Peter Forsberg), and I think that can be the difference in an otherwise even matchup. Oh, by the way, this is a rematch of last year’s first round, so it’ll be even more intense. This is going to be a great series. Sharks in 7.

That has a nice ring to it…. but it’s not quite good enough. How about “#1 playoff seed in the East” Buffalo Sabres? Yeah, that’s even better.

The road to the Stanley Cup goes through Buffalo this year, at least for the East. Toronto, Montreal, Tampa, I don’t care who it is we face in the first round. Bring it on. We’re ready for you.

“Stanley Cup champion Buffalo Sabres” will sound the best of all.

Whenever the subject of realignment and relocation comes up, the teams of the Southeast Division (along with Nashville and Phoenix) are always the first to be mentioned. Attendance figures are lukewarm at best, with Atlanta, Florida, and Washington in the bottom 10 of the league, and there is a general sense that hockey in the South just doesn’t make sense, that the population doesn’t “get” the game.

Michael Fahey of CNNSI hs a different spin on things, though. He paints a picture of the Southeast as a high-scoring, physical, high-energy brand of hockey that just might be the NHL’s best-kept secret, pointing out that (as of the time of the article) 6 of the NHL’s top 8 scorers were from Southeast teams. Fahey also takes on the attendance issue, noting that attendance is generally up in the Southeast as compared to last year, and discusses the particular challenges that non-traditional hockey markets face in selling a game to a fanbase that is more used to football and NASCAR.

This is something I’ve been meaning to write about for a while now, but haven’t had the chance. It’s an interesting read for anyone (like me) who has quickly dismissed the Southeast as a throwaway division.

The South Has Risen

This was one of my Christmas gifts from the wife this year. I just (finally) hung it on the wall the other day. The picture isn’t the greatest due to the way my living room is lit, but I think it looks really slick.

About 45 seconds into the video, they play the audio – Georges Laraque, a real heavyweight, is miked up. Listen to how he challenges the other guy to a fight. Friggin’ hilarious.