#1 Boston Bruins vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
Records: Bruins, 53-19-10 (116 pts); Canadiens, 41-30-11 (93 pts)
Season Series: Bruins, 5-0-1; Habs, 1-3-2
Analysis: The Canadiens began the year as the favorites to win the East, but instead celebrated their centennial by becoming the NHL’s version of the Dallas Cowboys. The 100th anniversary expectations were apparently too much to handle because the Canadiens were an inconsistent mess, going 3-11-1 during one stretch in January and February. Carey Price took a major step back in goal, Alex Kovalev was benched, the Kostitsyn brothers became linked to organized crime, quite a few players were widely criticized for being notorious partiers, and – in a move borne of sheer desperation – coach Guy Carbonneau was fired near the trade deadline despite insistence from GM (and now coach) Bob Gainey that he’d never do such a thing. Only Octo-mom provided more ridiculous drama over the past few months.
The Bruins, meanwhile, were consistently the best team in the conference all year long save for a little slide in February and March, and for good reason: they have the best depth of any team in the East. Players such as Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, and David Krejci had breakout years, Patrice Bergeron appears to have put his injury problems behind him, and they reloaded at the trade deadline with some guy named Mark Recchi. (Anyone know if he’s any good?) The defense with Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman, and Mark Stuart is solid, and Tim Thomas has his best statistical season ever, winning 36 games with a 2.10 (!) GAA and .933 (!!) save percentage. The Bruins were #2 in the NHL in goals scored and #1 in goals against.
Who I’m rooting for: Bruins, I guess. I’m not really fond of either team.
Who will win: Montreal will find a way to steal a game, but it’s hard to give them any more than that. Bruins in 5.
#2 Washington Capitals vs. #7 New York Rangers
Records: Capitals, 50-24-8 (108 pts), Rangers, 43-30-9 (95 pts)
Season Series: Caps, 3-0-1; Rangers, 1-2-1
Analysis: The Capitals built on last season’s rebirth, winning 50 games for the first time since 1985-86 and capturing the Southeast Division easily (not a major feat in years past, but the SE nearly fielded three playoff teams this year). They scored the third-most goals in the NHL (#2 in the East), Ovechkin again led all goal scorers in the NHL with 56, and four players (Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Mike Green) scored 70+ points, helping overcome somewhat inconsistent goaltending from Jose Theodore. Many people assume the Caps are a one-man army, but their role players and defense are better than most people realize.
The Rangers, meanwhile, have been very up-and-down. A 10-2-3 start was wiped out by a 2-7-4 stretch in January and February that helped get coach Tom Renney fired. Since being taken over by John Tortorella and re-acquiring Sean Avery, the Blueshirts are a very different team, playing a more aggressive attacking style than that of the more conservative Renney. The pre-Tortorella Rangers trapped a lot and were often accused of being New Jersey Lite; Tortorella’s Rangers are most certainly not that. The big knock against the Rangers is a lack of goal scoring; Markus Naslund led the team with just 24, and in fact, Ovechkin had more goals than Naslund and #2 goal scorer Nikolai Zherdev all by himself. Unless Henrik Lundqvist is Superman, the Rangers will need someone to find a scoring touch to have a prayer in this series.
Who I’m rooting for: The Rangers are the only other team I wouldn’t mind seeing in the Finals, but my huge mancrush on Ovechkin dictates I must root for the Caps. If the Rangers win this series, they become my East team for the rest of the playoffs.
Who will win: The Avery and Tortorella factors make this somewhat tough to call, as the season series was played out before they arrived in New York. But as long as Theodore doesn’t melt down, the Caps don’t let Avery get under their skin, and Lundqvist lets in a goal every now and then, the Caps can punch their ticket to Round 2. Caps in 6.
#3 New Jersey Devils vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Records: Devils, 51-27-4 (106 pts); Hurricanes, 45-30-7 (97 pts)
Season Series: Devils, 1-3-0; Canes, 3-1-0
Analysis: Yet another ho-hum 50-win season for the Devils, as Martin Brodeur carried them by playing in nearly every game and a set of 12 interchangeable forwards trapped the life out of opponents resulting in a ton of 2-1 victories. I tell you, if Brodeur ever got injured that team would be exposed as a fraud… wait a minute, what’s that you say? Brodeur missed 50 games with an injured elbow? Zach Parise finished 5th in the NHL in scoring… and plays for the Devils? Huh, what do you know. The truth is, the Devils aren’t the defense-only team we’re all used to – they’re decidedly middle-of-the-pack now when it comes to goal scoring. Hey, that’s a really big deal in Swampland! The Devils have lots of depth at forward and defense, but their problem is momentum, ending the season on a 5-7-1 run in which Brodeur was very un-Brodeurlike.
Carolina, on the other hand, ended the season on an 18-6-2 tear since Valentine’s Day, including a nine-game winning streak in March and 12 straight at home. Carolina is yet another team that showed its coach the door during the season, and this was yet another instance of it actually working. A deadline-day deal brought Erik Cole back into the fold from Edmonton, rejuvenating both his career and Eric Staal’s. Cam Ward has been unbelievable over the last couple months, and enough pieces are left from the 2006 Cup that lack of experience won’t be an issue.
Who I’m rooting for: New Jersey aren’t the trap hacks they used to be, but they still ruined hockey in the mid-90′s. Carolina crushed my Cup dreams in 2006. Do I have to root for either one? Too bad hockey doesn’t have a double disqualification like wrestling.
Who will win: I’m going with the team that has more momentum. The Devils don’t have their usual goaltending advantage in this series – remember that Cam Ward won a Conn Smythe three years ago, and he’ll outplay Brodeur. Canes in 7.
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers
Records: Penguins, (45-28-9, 99 pts); Flyers, 44-27-11 (99 pts)
Season Series: Pens, 4-2-0; Flyers, 2-2-2
Analysis: With the amount of talent Pittsburgh has, they should have easily won the East. They boast two of the league’s top three scorers in Crosby and Malkin, for crying out loud. Yet if the season ended in January, the Pens would be watching the playoffs on TV like the rest of us. What happened? Injuries (Sergei Gonchar, Crosby), and apparently, Michel Therrien. His Valentine’s Day card from the team had a pink slip inside, and since replacing him with Dan Bylsma and adding Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz, all of a sudden the Penguins are as good as they’ve ever been.
Remember when the Flyers completely sucked a couple years ago? Yeah, I hardly remember it either. What a turnaround this team has undergone since 2006-07. Mike Richards has developed into one of the best young captains in the league, Jeff Carter has become a goal scoring machine, and although they’ve been just fine without Danny Briere for the vast majority of the season, he’s now healthy as well. The Flyers were playing so well that they actually had some difficulty getting him back into the lineup. Goaltending is a question mark, but you could copy and paste that phrase from year to year and it would still apply. The Flyers usually find a way to compensate.
Who I’m rooting for: My hatred of both teams runs very deep – the Flyers have always been dirty and Crosby is a diving, crying little punk – so I’ll go with double disqualification once again.
Who will win: By the numbers, these teams are as even as it gets. First, note the regular season records above. Pittsburgh scored 264 goals in the regular season; so did Philly. Pittsburgh gave up 239 goals, Philly gave up 238. Pittsburgh’s PK was 82.7%: Philly, 83%. Pittsburgh’s home record was 25-13-3 and away record was 20-15-6. Philly? 24-13-4
and 20-14-7. And – get this – both teams play in the state of Pennsylvania! How about that!
When the numbers are this close, I have to look at two things: goaltending and momentum. Advantage: Pittsburgh in both cases. Penguins in 7.