EASTERN CONFERENCE
====================
Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Islanders (8)
Nobody but the most diehard of Islander fans would have even suggested that the Isles would be here a week ago, but Montreal, Toronto, and Carolina collapsed all around the Isles in hilarious fashion while the Fishsticks were busy winning four straight to close the season. Unfortunately for the Islanders, all they have earned is the right to get utterly destroyed by the President’s Trophy-winning Sabres. Lindy Ruff will not allow his team to take anyone for granted despite the #1 seed, so don’t expect the Islanders to catch anyone by surprise. Ted Nolan is good enough to coach New York to perhaps one win, but he can’t compensate for a lack of depth and a recently called up third-string goalie who is about to crack under the pressure of facing the highest-scoring team in the league, which boasts seven guys with 20 or more goals. And I hear a lot about how Miro Satan will be pumped to play against his old team, but does anyone really think he won’t go in the tank if the Sabres win the first two games? (Note to the AP: the Sabres didn’t fire Nolan - his contract had expired, Darcy Regier was a new GM in a tough spot, and Nolan turned down his one-year contract offer. Get your facts straight.) Sabres in 5.
New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7)
The Devils have a couple guys who can score, a defensive philosophy that is effective (although incredibly boring), and some guy named Brodeur between the pipes. Tampa has…. a couple guys who can score. Seriously, “Charlie’s Angels” has more depth than the Lightning, and it might have better goaltending too. Keep those pillows around for New Jersey’s snooze-inducing second-round matchup. Sealy ought to ditch the sheep and use Lou Lamiorello in their mattress commercials instead. Devils in 6.
Atlanta Thrashers (3) vs. New York Rangers (6)
Those lucky Rangers. They get to play the overrated Thrashers - a team that earned only three more points despite being seeded three spots higher - all because the Rangers weren’t quite as good as the Penguins, who get stuck playing Ottawa. This series points out the big flaw in the NHL’s playoff system - the Thrashers are not worthy of a #3 seed, and will most certainly not be around for the second round. I don’t know how to fix that, but I do know that Henrik Lundqvist has been on fire lately, and that combined with the Rangers’ recommittment to defense means that Atlanta GM Don Waddell will have traded his future at the deadline for nothing. Shut down Kovalchuk, Hossa, and Kozlov, and Atlanta has no one left to put the puck in the net. Keith Tkachuk? Yeah, he sure has led teams to playoff success everywhere he’s been. Rangers in 6.
Ottawa Senators (4) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5)
There’s no doubt in my mind that this will be the most thrilling of all the first-round matchups. Both teams have a lot of scoring and play an up-tempo game. It’ll be interesting to see how Pittsburgh’s kids respond to their first playoff series - there’s a reason why the Pens got Gary Roberts at the trade deadline. That will pay off enormously, but I don’t think it will be enough. The Sens have more depth, are better on the blueline, and Ray Emery still hasn’t realized he’s only Ray Emery yet. Sid the Kid’s first playoff series will end in disappointment, but disappointment will never be more fun to watch. Senators in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
=====================
Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Calgary Flames (8)
Detroit is a fraud. I say it every year, and usually I’m proven right - you may recall that I picked the Oilers to win in the first round last year. The Wings went 22-4-6 against the incredibly weak Central Division and 28-15-7 against everyone else - it’s easy to amass a lot of points when you get to play Columbus, Chicago, and St. Louis a total of 24 times a year. Detroit finds itself in a similar situation to last year, matched up with a #8 seed from Alberta who barely made the playoffs and is known for a defensive style. The difference is that this year, that #8 seed stumbled badly entering the playoffs - Calgary lost its last four games. Miikka Kiprusoff has given up at least three goals in each of his last three starts, and he needs to be better for the Flames to have any chance at all. He has the capability to steal a series though, as he did in ‘04 when the Flames made the finals. The Flames have a bit more scoring depth than in the past - Alex Tanguay, the better-late-than-never emergence of Kristian Huselius - but Detroit should have just enough to get by the Flames despite some injuries, most notably Niklas Kronwall. Assuming that Dominik Hasek doesn’t get his yearly groin injury in the next week, the Wings will wait until the second round this year to be exposed for what they are. Wings in 7.
Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Minnesota Wild (7)
Minnesota is a team stuck with an awful first-round matchup. Technically the Ducks are no longer Mighty, but you’d never know it after their unreal 28-5-6 start. Then the injuries started piling up - first J.S. Giguere, then Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. The Ducks were a rather mediocre 20-15-8 for the rest of the season, blowing the #1 seed in the West and nearly the Pacific Division title. The Wild also endured more than their fair share of injuries, most notably to Marian Gaborik (whose groin injuries rival Hasek’s in terms of frequency) and Manny Fernandez, who seems to have been replaced as the #1 guy by Nicklas Backstrom, who has played very well. Nearly all the walking wounded have healed though, and as long as the Ducks can stay healthy, they have too much for the overmatched Wild, especially on defense. (Side note: Minnesota must have the coolest potential chant in the league - “Let’s Go Wild!” They do use that, right?) Ducks in 6.
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Dallas Stars (6)
If you like low-scoring games, this is your series. The Stars ranked #2 in the league with only 197 goals against, and Vancouver isn’t far behind, tying for fifth at 201. Meanwhile, Dallas is #21 in goals for (226) and the Canucks are #22 (222). Having said this, I am certain every game will be 6-5. Clearly, this series is going to come down to goaltending, and how unlucky for Dallas that they don’t have a clear-cut advantage as they would against most other teams. Which Marty Turco will we see this time - the guy with the .910 save percentage and the 2.23 GAA in the regular season, or the guy who chokes nearly every year in the playoffs (3.32 GAA, .849 save percentage in ‘03-’04, and 3.39 GAA, .868 save percentage last year)? My guess is the latter. Roberto Luongo has been waiting a long time to make the playoffs, and he will not disappoint. Canucks in 6.
Nashville Predators (4) vs. San Jose Sharks (5)
The seedings in the West don’t make much of a difference this year, with only nine points separating the top seven teams. This series is no exception. Nashville - like Detroit - is somewhat of a fraud, padding its record by beating up on weak AHL… er, I mean Central Division teams. San Jose plays against a couple of bottom-feeders in the Pacific as well, but have Anaheim and Dallas to keep them a bit more honest. Both teams have two solid goaltenders (and it will be interesting to see if the Sharks pick a guy and stick with him or continue to use a strict every-other-game rotation), both teams have balanced scoring with 11 players each who scored at least 10 goals, both teams are good on the road, and both teams play well defensively. In short, these two teams are very evenly matched. In the end, I like San Jose’s trades at the deadline (Craig Rivet, Bill Guerin) better than Nashville’s (Peter Forsberg), and I think that can be the difference in an otherwise even matchup. Oh, by the way, this is a rematch of last year’s first round, so it’ll be even more intense. This is going to be a great series. Sharks in 7.
